available to the voters. Analysing the performance of national as well as the regional parties, C.V. Aravind , says election manifestos have lost their relevance, as disillusioned voters have neither the time nor the inclination to even glance through them leave alone read them with interest.
The tenure of the present Lok Sabha, the 15th since independence expires by the end of May and the Election Commission has announced its schedule for the general elections in the country which is to be conducted in nine phases between April 7 and May 12. The election will be held for 543 constituencies across the country and an estimated 814.5 million people are eligible to cast their votes. This makes it the biggest exercise in the world and with an estimated outlay of ` 3500 crores perhaps the costliest as well. There has been an addition in the voter base of 100 million since the last polls held in 2009.
As in the past this time too, the contest is expected to be between the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) seeking a mandate for the third time after 2004 and 2009 and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which ceded power to the UPA in 2004. All set to throw a spanner in the works is the Johnny who’s come lately in the political firmament, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an offshoot of the India Against Corruption (IAC) campaign minus its chief protagonist, Gandhian Anna Hazare, who has not just shied away from donning the party’s colours but has also been taking potshots at his one time chela, the founder of the AAP, Arvind Kejriwal. The UPA, led by the Congress is apparently all set to be floored by the anti-incumbency wave and having blotted its copybook, thanks to a plethora of scams that rocked its boat during its second tenure, has all but conceded Elections 2014: Who reads a manifesto, anyway? Elections are less than a month away, but manifestos of political parties are still not available to the voters. Analysing the performance of national as well as the regional parties, C.V. Aravind , says election manifestos have lost their relevance, as disillusioned voters have neither the time nor the inclination to even glance through them leave alone read them with interest. defeat if the hangdog expressions of its top honchos are any indication.
Congress on a weak wicket
The UPA’s initiative which witnessed the passing of several bills like the Right to Information Act, the Food Security Act, the Lokpal all of which are certain to have a long term positive impact on the country, has all but been buried under an avalanche of scams like the Commonwealth scam, the 2G scam, the Coal scam and so on. This perhaps was one reason why Prime Minister Manmohan Singh chose to avoid the media, but his action has only proved counterproductive and has resulted in the party finding itself on a weak wicket. The extreme reluctance exhibited by top rung leaders of the party like A K Antony, P Chidambaram and G K Vasan to contest the polls is a clear indication that the chips are down and these leaders are not inclined to risk defeats in their own pocket boroughs that could well bring their political careers to a grinding halt. The party’s decision to rehabilitate tainted leaders like Pavan Bansal, the former railway minister and Ashok Chavan, former Maharashtra chief minister will not go well with the electorate. Of course taking back tainted leaders or fielding them in elections is not the prerogative of the Congress party alone for its toughest competitor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) too has not been above board in this respect. Another factor that could weigh against the Congress party is its decision to face the election without naming a PM candidate. While speculation was rife that the Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi who had been designated as party vice president would be the UPA’s choice, Gandhi has remained just the de facto candidate.
BJP on a roll
The BJP on the other hand is on a roll. Victories in assembly elections, that too by thumping margins in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh has given its electoral campaign a distinct fillip. But the man who is expected to lead from the front and whose juggernaut it appears brooks no stopping is the Gujarat CM and the party’s PM nominee Narendra Modi. Modi who has still been unsuccessful in exorcising the ghosts of the Gujarat riots in 2002 was chosen as the party’s PM nominee despite clear objections from party patriarch L K Advani and second rung leaders like Sushma Swaraj and Yashwant Sinha. Today as Modi crisscrosses the country addressing huge rallies in his booming, baritone voice playing up the deficiencies of the opposition, mainly the Congress it appears that the man has seized the moment; though, he had to remain on tenterhooks till his name was cleared for the Varanasi seat from where he will contest the polls to the Lok Sabha for the first time in his political career. Sushma Swaraj was again overruled when she opposed the re-entry of her one time favourite and acolyte of the infamous Reddy brothers of Bellary, Sriramulu with whom she had fallen out after they were indicted in the mining scam into the party. The party also took a controversial decision to take back the former Karnataka CM, B S Yeddyurappa who had left the party after he was made to quit as CM in the wake of a number of cases filed against him by the Lokayukta though it debarred some of his associates.
AAP – the new entrant
A surprise element in the coming elections is the advent of the Aam Aadmi Party, still a motely crowd of RTI activists, journalists, intellectuals, social activists, tech czars, lawyers etc. In a stunning denouement it captured power with outside support from the Congress and ruled the state for precisely 49 days before Kejriwal called it quits when his government was not permitted to table the Jan Lokpal Bill sans the sanction of the Centre. While Kejriwal utilised the opportunity to provide free water to Delhiites and also waived arrears in electricity bills, some of his ministers, notably his law minister Somnath Bharti earned the wrath of the city’s African community with a midnight raid on their homes. The AAP has now pitched its tent at a much higher altitude and is aiming to contest nearly 400 seats for the Lok Sabha polls. Meanwhile Kejriwal’s Mukesh Ambani fixation wherein he never tires of repeating ad nauseam that the country is run by the business baron and that he has both Rahul and Modi in his pockets has struck a sour note. His blasting the media and his threat to throw them in jail for being in the pay of the BJP too has not gone well with the fourth estate. It is indeed a pity that he has forgotten that it was the media that was largely responsible for the AAP to get a national presence.
Regional parties to gain
In the event of a fractured mandate, the regional parties are likely to gain in stature as any alliance, the NDA or the UPA aiming for the magical figure of 272 might have to seek their support. The parties that are expected to fare well are the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha. In UP, the state which sends the maximum number of MPs (80) to the Lok Sabha, the BJP has been able to make inroads into the strongholds of both the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) which spearheaded the movement for a separate Telangana not only reneged on its promise to merge its party with the Congress post the creation of Telangana, but also backed out of an alliance with the party leaving the Congress staring at a big defeat in the state of Andhra Pradesh. The attempt by the Left and the Janata Dal (Secular) and a clutch of parties including the AIADMK, Janata Dal (United) and BJD among others to form the third front was still born, as the front floundered when the Left parties who demanded three seats each for the CPI and the CPM from the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, were given short shrift as Jayalalithaa was prepared to spare only one seat each. With Mamata Banejee, the West Bengal CM espousing the cause of Jayalalithaa for the post of PM, there is a talk that the two formidable leaders could come together to form a Federal Front with parties like the Telugu Desam which would exclude the Congress, the BJP and the Left parties too. However, the indications are that these fronts might have to wait till after the election results are announced and circumstances warrant such coming together of parties with varying ideologies all led by highly egoistic leaders who seldom yield an inch.
Manifestos mainly election gimmicks
Most political parties have now made it a habit to delay their manifestos till the 11th hour. Over the last few elections these manifestos which generally promise the voters the moon and also wax eloquent on their intention to turn the country into a land flowing with milk and honey have lost their relevance as the voters whose disillusionment with mainstream parties is an open secret have neither the time nor the inclination to even glance through them leave alone peruse them with interest. The Congress has this time around decided to focus their attention on the youth and the lower middle class, and is all set to target students with education loans sans collaterals, development vouchers for the self employed and in its bid to woo the rural classes it seeks to provide individual crop insurance to farmers. Among the target groups are women whose self-help groups will be given extended interest free loans upto ` 5 lakhs. Bringing at least 50 percent of farmers into the ambit of institutional finance, replication of the loan waiver scheme are some of the other priorities listed. As for the other main contender the BJP, the focus is likely to be on the salary earners with an increase in tax exemption limit from ` 2 lakhs at present to ` 5 lakhs on the cards, doing away with education cess, rationalising service tax etc. Regional parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) will press for the abolition of capital punishment, implementation of the long overdue Sethu Samudram project and will reiterate its opposition to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the retail sector. It is a well established fact that many of these manifestos are mere election gimmicks and the discerning voter can hardly be swayed by the lofty promises many of which will remain only on paper.
Coalitions are the order of the day and there is little doubt that the current election too might throw up a fractured verdict and the combination that can cobble up alliances with regional parties might have a better chance of forming a government. What is vital however is stability as the country is passing through an economic crisis with unchecked inflation, the rise in the current account deficit, the rupee in free fall, dwindling jobs etc. The Maoist threat, uneasy alliances with neighbours too are matters that demand a strong government at the Centre.
Towards a better Parliament
The 16th Lok Sabha will be constituted in two months from now. Electioneering has reached a fever pitch and parties are going all out to mobilise support from the voters for their candidates. As always the voter is faced with a Hobson’s choice as no political party in the country, not even the AAP deserves to be voted to power. With voter awareness continuing to be low and with illiterate voters being in large numbers, political parties of varied hues will leave no stone unturned to hoodwink the masses and secure their patronage. Thanks to television, atleast the urban electorate would have been able to see firsthand the performance of their elected members of Parliament and could have assessed their worth. It has become a custom for parties to field the same men again and again with hardly any appraisal of their contribution as it is only the winnability factor and caste equations that are in play. The onus is therefore on the voters to select and reject candidates. They have the bounden duty of ensuring that the pristine image of Parliament which has been so badly mauled is restored and for that it is essential to contemplate and think before casting their votes. Voting on caste lines or for parties that promise the moon in their manifestos only to renege on their promises after coming to power has led us to this predicament. It is time to look beyond these narrow considerations and focus more on the capabilities of the candidates in the fray.
Even in the current Lok Sabha there were many sane voices, but these were drowned in the cacophony of the majority. There have been many who have used their Member of Parliament Local Area Development Division (MPLADs) to rehabilitate the poor and for investments that would raise the standard of living of the downtrodden. It is only this segment that deserves a second chance for they are the ones who have the interest of the country and the people at heart. The rest are little more than flotsam and jetsam who deserve to be discarded. The country needs good administrators and able ministers in Parliament, which is really no place for rabble rousers and those who disregard norms and rules. The firm resolve should be to elect only those who can be expected to function effectively, maintain dignity and decorum and enhance the quality of parliamentary debates. As the world’s largest democracy, our Parliament should be a model to all the nations of the world and it is the duty of every Indian to make it so.
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C.V. Aravind
The writer is a Bangalore-based freelance journalist.[/column]