The recent unusual flooding in Dubai, the unprecedented heat wave in India and many other
parts of the world, has triggered a debate on “Climate Change.” Raju Korti argues that all disasters resulting from the phenomenon are basically manmade and regrets governments across the
globe being insensitive in addressing the issue.
I am fundamentally opposed to the term “vagaries of nature”. It is an expedient way to blame the Nature for all the ills humans suffer. The phrase often implies a randomness or unpredictability in natural occurrences, suggesting that Nature operates without discernible pattern or purpose. As a compulsive student of Climate Physics (my own coinage, of course because it is never taught as a proper subject in science curricula), I find the term patently flawed in its implication.
No disasters are artificial, they are all man-made, including those laid at the doorstep of what is being bandied as “climate change”. Admitted, Nature though sometimes complex and sometimes unpredictable, operates within the framework of intricate systems and laws that govern the universe. I call it Climate Physics that hasn’t reached the depths of human understanding. It is not altogether surprising that there are very few who observe the phenomena from weather patterns to geological processes rather than treat them as mere whimsical fluctuations.
Dismissing natural disasters as vagaries undermines all serious efforts in scientific principles at play and diminishes the awe-inspiring intricacy of the natural world. In the hurry to dismiss the issue with a tinge of scrappy research, it is often forgotten that it is through rigorous study and exploration that we uncover the order and beauty within what might initially appear as chaos.
Climate Physics doesn’t get the attention it deserves and the efforts to understand “climate change” often gets lost in a maze of confusing facts and figures that vary geographically but with little efforts to co-relate them and present a plausible model. In simpler words, we are just not able to delve deeper into the fascinating mechanisms that govern our plant and universe.
It is no secret that humans are primarily responsible for virtually all global heating over the last 200 years. Greenhouse gases are warming the world faster than at any time in at least the last 50 years and humans love to pay more lip service to the cause than any steps on ground. It is obvious that the efforts to contain or mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and bring a semblance of order to rampaging Nature, have been significantly less. Governments across the globe are either indifferent or do not think the issue is weighty enough to expend money and worthwhile research. Far from being inclement, Mother Nature has been kind, giving humans umpteen hints that there is scope for mitigation.
Most people think climate change means warmer temperatures. That, however, is just a superficial exterior and beginning of the story. Because the Earth is a system, where every other parameter is connected, change(s) in one area has the potential to influence changes in all others. The adverse and all-pervasive effects of climate change have been spelt out with regular alarm — intense droughts (dry and wet), water scarcity, severe fires, rising sea levels, flooding, melting polar ice, catastrophic storms, declining bio-diversities, and the unprecedented but ubiquitous heat waves all over the world. The last one was the dominant news other than our pathological obsession for politics.
The flip side of rising presence of greenhouses gases means rise in carbon footprint, causing global temperatures to soar. The scientific consensus should be clear: Human actions are the dominant driver of the perceived climate changes over the past century with profound implications for ecosystems, weather patterns, and human societies worldwide.
At the cost of being a naysayer, I will dare say that further warming of our atmosphere is now impossible to avoid. It appears to have reached an irretrievable point-of-no-return. While the ecosystems get destroyed, the Earth will become inhabitable for many species, leading to extinctions and redistribution of species, threatening food production with alien pests and diseases. Man, in his superior wisdom might manage to outlive a bit longer but the doomsday clock is ticking rapidly and how! If the consequences of climate change — impacts on agricultural economies like India — are especially dangerous for the poorest. Nature will not leave it to crooked politicians to eradicate poverty.
The potential human cost will be catastrophic that no budgets will be able to take care of. A rise in sea levels threatens hundreds of millions in coastal communities and cities across the globe — our own Mumbai, now billed as the third biggest city in the world — at risk. Epidemics could force large-scale migrations by 2050 which is just 25 years away. The next generation will be condemned to watch and endure as humans cause Mother Earth’s degeneration.
Coastal areas around the world are diverse and vital ecosystems where land meets the sea. These regions are characterised by a dynamic interface of land, water, and air, supporting unique biodiversity and human livelihoods, they also play a crucial role in global economies, providing resources like fisheries, tourism opportunities, and transportation hubs. As these take a hit, they face significant challenges such as erosion, pollution, and climate change impacts, underscoring the need for sustainable management and conservation efforts to protect these invaluable environments for future generations.
I read in a journal that according to latest research evaluating 44 countries, emissions arising as a result of population growth wiped out two-thirds of the reduction in emissions arising from greater energy efficiency between 1990 and 2019. Meanwhile, solutions such as reforestation (which in India are more of cosmetic photo ops) may be more difficult to implement with more people needing food and land. In its landmark report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) specifically identified high population growth as a “key impediment” to hitting the critical target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
The projections on “climate change” are scary. It has been overemphasised that global surface temperatures have increased 1.5 degrees F (0.8 C) on an average with a rise in acceleration in the last 50 years. The culprits are far too many and well known to bear any repetition. The IPCC report vindicates my contention that the turning point has been since 1970, until which, Nature was well within its limits. Satellite observations suggest that the rate of sea level rise globally since 1992 has been twice as rapid as it was during the previous century.
Climate action calls for significant concerted efforts globally and need enhanced financial investments by governments and businesses. But there is no will, and therefore, no way. Governments have money for populist measures but none for the Earth’s population. Green economy is a mere figure of speech. A complex interplay of factors that include political inertia, vested interest in fossil fuel industries and societal reluctance to make necessary lifestyle changes will thwart any reversal.
Short-term economic priorities often take precedence over long-term environmental sustainability, leading to insufficient policies and investments in renewable energy and carbon reduction strategies. Moreover, the global nature of the issue makes international cooperation and consensus challenging to achieve, further exacerbating the problem. We are only condemned to watch as climate crisis and its impacts devastate ecosystems and human societies worldwide.
Raju Korti is a senior journalist with over four-decade experience of working in media institutions.