— Mahatma Gandhi
As the prescient observation of the Father of the Nation indicates, “corruption and hypocrisy” are not new ills afflicting the country. However, over the last six decades and the successive elections, the familiar old hypocrisy has scaled Himalayan heights and the ancient legacy of corruption has cascaded on to a cosmic scale.
Politics of development gaining ground
Before embarking on a critical analysis of the state of the Congress party – its vision for the nation and its 2014 election manifesto, it is necessary not to be carried away by cynicism and be overwhelmed by the current mood of gloom and disillusionment. In reality, the state of our democracy is not as bad as it is made out to be. It is important not to lose the sense of perspective in finding fault with our self-governing institutions. In this context it is appropriate to quote Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan, Founder and President of Loksatta Party, one of the sane voices in the cacophony enveloping us today. “Over the years Indian democracy has certainly stood the test of time. Among the nations liberated after the Second World War, India has a unique record of successive elections and, stable and peaceful democracy.”
Fortunately, a new trend is gaining ground recently. This can be conceived as the “politics of development.” Incumbency is not necessarily an automatic negative “fact of life” in electoral politics any more. Chief Ministers who “performed” and delivered on their promises are being rewarded by the electorate with a second and even a third term. This is where the Congress Party is faced with its biggest challenge today. Failure to perform is writ large on its leadership at the very top. The economy is in doldrums under the captaincy of an expert economist. Sonia-Singh duopoly is seen as dysfunctional – an untenable disjunction between power and responsibility. Policy paralysis and spectacular corruption have become by-words for the UPA-2. Rahul Gandhi, vice president of the party is seen as a “distant drummer” who has to wait for his turn five to ten years from now.
The Congress manifesto
The manifesto of the party for the 2014 elections is still in the works and is expected to be released by the party president Sonia Gandhi in the last week of March 2014. The widespread consultations with all stakeholders are underway and the sub-manifestos of the various states are being prepared. However, there is enough material in the public domain by way of statements, declarations of intent, and promises and freebies for us to offer our analysis. In any case, the party’s “draft” manifesto is available as on 15 March 2014.
The Congress party has adopted a double edged strategy: improving the business environment and building on the “rights” based architecture set up over the years. The party and the government are painfully aware that the failure on the economic front during the last few years is the foundation of popular disaffection and growing disillusionment across the country. To combat the trend, the top leadership is going all out to assure the nation that a restoration of a business friendly climate is their priority number one. Towards this end they will, for example, bring clarity on taxing foreign firms, rationalise subsidies, stick to fiscal deficit targets, push direct tax reforms, and speed up environmental clearances, and so on. The party has a three-pronged strategy for economic growth: 1) Reform the regulatory mechanisms by making them more autonomous, professional and transparent. 2) Enact goods and services tax. 3) Enable public sector enterprises to invest. These measures, party leaders believe, will boost micro, small, and medium industries, which are country’s industrial backbone.
Over the last decade or so, the UPA government has built up a decent record in the social sector through empowerment by passing new laws – Right to Information (RTI), Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), Right to Education (RTE), Right to Food, and Lokpal. Now the party promises to build on its record by including right to health, housing, water and sanitation as a part of its strategy to accord pride of place to the social sector. Hereafter, focus would be on implementation, which has been a weak link in reaching the targeted beneficiaries.
The Congress manifesto
Now let us turn to the populist side of electoral politics and look at the freebies on offer. Rahul Gandhi promises free health care for all for the next five years, if the party is returned to power. Free power to the farmers and low income families is another favourite of all parties, without realising that giving free power left and right will end up as no power to anyone. Congress Party plans to enact legislation to mandate a quota for the SCs/STs in the corporate sector, and create 100 million new jobs for the youth by 2020.
When politicians campaign in different parts of the country, they naturally promise something or the other to woo the local voters. While campaigning in Odisha, Rahul Gandhi promised free power to the poor up to 200 units a month, if voted into power in Bhubaneswar Municipal Corporation elections. English medium schools for children of slum dwellers were also promised.While campaigning in Mizoram, he promised to create more jobs to the youth of the state; to setup a medical college, to give priority to the development of sports skills of the Mizo youth; and also give special attention to roads linking all villages in the state.
After much dilly dallying, as the elections drew near, the number of subsidised gas cylinders per year was raised from 9 to 12 for all on 30 January 2014. The Congress party once again promised to enact the Women’s Reservations Bill, a promise it has failed to keep for decades. A 10 to 100 percent hike in Dearness Allowance (DA) benefitting five million government employees and three million pensioners is on the docket. This is second such increase in six months and is estimated to cost ` 20,900 crores to the exchequer. On 3 February 2014, the Petroleum Ministry increased gas supply to Delhi, which brought down the price of CNG and piped natural gas measurably. The HRD (Human Resource Development) ministry launched two education schemes costing ` 1,600 crores for Muslim youth living in districts with high concentration of minorities.
Jains were recently accorded the status of minorities. On 3 March 2014, the UPA-2 government granted Other Backward Class (OBC) status to Jats, despite the consistent reports to the contrary by the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC). The expectation is that the Jats will switch to the party en bloc and also influence the votes of the castes below them in Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, and western UP. The Cabinet initiated the process of identifying nomadic and de-notified tribes numbering 500 and 150 respectively. The government has amended the central list of OBCs to include 60 castes and communities in 13 states.
One could go on and on listing the freebies and sundry promises of this kind on election eve. However, voters are not dumb. They know and understand that most of the promises are not intended to be honoured. A recent survey revealed that over 70 percent of the people don’t believe the leaders and do not expect the promises to be kept. In fact, they demand that the Election Commission should take strict action against erring parties and leaders on this count.
The party seems to be over for the Congress
A quick overview of the 2014 election scene clearly indicates that the Congress party is unlikely to be voted back to power. If the current trends hold and the many surveys are fairly accurate in gauging the mood of the people, the party may not even reach the 100 mark by way of seats in the Lok Sabha. Sonia, Singh, and Rahul are responsible (in that order) for the state of despair and gloom. Visible failure on the economic front, corruption on cosmic scale, and “policy paralysis” are certainly the main causes behind the disarray.
Actually, the party’s record is not as bad as it is made out to be by the adversaries. The party leaders and the Congress governments at all levels failed to carry their side of the story with conviction and efficacy. The leadership seems to have lost the nerve, even before the battle lines were drawn. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stands out as a sad, lonely, and helpless figure. On the way back from the latest foreign trip, he refused to hold the customary press meet on board the aircraft. He seems to have finally given up. How long can a sidelined and ignored leader deceive himself and the public?
A five to 10 year vanvaas (banishment) will be a good thing for the party and also the country. Congress is out of touch with the pulse of the people and has lost their trust. This period of sanity will make Rahul Gandhi grow into a more mature and clever leader. He has a lot of work to overhaul the party, get rid of the deadwood and tainted leaders and get back to electoral battle with a younger and cleaner team. The task is not easy. Old habits die hard and the old guard is not a spent force. The ominous evidence is on hand. Defeated, tainted Sheila Dikshit has been rehabilitated as a Governor (giving her immunity against corruption charges) and Pawan Bansal has been rewarded with the party ticket for the Lok Sabha seat from Chandigarh.
It is vital for all the citizens of India to do everything possible to prevent our elections from degenerating into
advanced auctions of stolen goods!
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Dr. B. Ramesh Babu
The writer is President of the Hyderabad Chapter of the Indian Liberal Group.[/column]