Manifest Destiny’ as a phrase comes to us from 19th century American history. It was the belief of then Americans that they were destined to expand their sway in North America from east coast to the west coast. Adapting it to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), one might say AAP was perceived by ordinary people of India as a party born to cleanse ‘politics’ in India, which Anna Hazare had rightly called ‘dirty’.
Now that general elections have been announced by the Election Commission of India for April-May 2014, the best means to determine to what extent the AAP continues to be committed to its original goal of purifying the Indian politics. Largely by restoring power back to the ordinary people not connected with any party, any coloured caps or flags except to the followers of the Indian national flag, is to know policies which it chooses to pursue nationally and in states and the extent to which it is able to achieve them during the five years after the general elections. The best way to know what are the policies a party is going to pursue if it comes to power singly or as a part of a coalition is to refer to its manifesto. Unfortunately, the AAP has not come out with its manifesto so far. The problem of understanding main policies that AAP will follow becomes much more difficult as it is a new party unlike the older parties in the field.
Hence, one can only construct its likely policies and programmes through its (a) commitment to policies prior to Delhi elections and its political behaviour then, (b) utterances of members of its executive committee and (c) occasional statements.
Populist rule of 49 days in Delhi
When Kejriwal broke from Anna Hazare’s movement to form the AAP, it was clear that the group led by him is keen to taste power and not so much to reform the politics in the country. Kejriwal having said that he will maintain equidistance from the Congress and the BJP, had no qualms in taking the support of the Congress in forming the government. After 49 days as the chief minister of Delhi, he resigned because there was a dispute whether the federal government’s clearance has to be sought before AAP’s favourite ‘strong Lokpal’ for the state anti corruption bill is introduced in the state assembly or not. In reality, it was an excuse. It is the considered opinion of a large number of people that Kejriwal was in a hurry to taste power at the federal level as well.
Planks to begin with
The anti-corruption agenda of Anna Hazare was taken over by AAP by stating that 15 ministers in the Congress-led federal cabinet are corrupt. Corruption is the main issue but it cannot be the monopoly of any one political party, as no party worth its name ever would say that they are in favour of corruption. Hence, after quitting power in Delhi, AAP has moved to attack individuals and highlight particular issues in the vast arena of corruption. Thus, Kejriwal has targeted industrialist Mukesh Ambani of Reliance Industries for doubling Krishna-Godavari basin gas price with the federal government’s concurrence as an issue.
AAP has singled out the issue of gas price doubling for targeting corruption with an intention to create a solid support base amongst the rickshawalas in Delhi, where 1.5 lakh of them depend on CNG-driven autorikshaws. During his agitation, autorickshawalas constituted his main supporters as volunteers. His travelling in an auto in Mumbai could be seen as an effort to expand his constituency of autorickshawalas on a nation-wide basis.
Second, even if we assume there is large scale corruption in India, logically Kejriwal ought to have focused on the Congress, as for the last 10 years it is that party which is at the helm of affairs at the federal level. But instead, he has focused on BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi by linking him to Mukesh Ambani. In his public address to people in Mumbai, Kejriwal said: “If people vote either for Rahul Gandhi or Modi, ultimately the country is run by Mukesh Ambani.” He alleged that Modi is using helicopters owned by Ambani. Practically every industrialist in the country has appreciated the steps taken by Modi. Yet by making Ambani a symbol of what is wrong with Indian business and industries, AAP shows that opposition to ‘crony capitalism’ might prominently figure in its manifesto.
Third, Kejriwal wants the country to know that not only he is willing to take on the big and powerful in the industry, but in politics as well. This could also be a plus point to appeal to middle class voters as a party which fights without money power of the big industrial magnates. If this leads to inclusion of public funding of elections, it could be a welcome feature of the AAP’s commitment to certain innovative changes in the manifesto. Perceived as a strong contender for power, AAP could if necessary, join hands with the Congress Party in forming a coalition government. Hence, he has kept options open for a post-Lok Sabha election alliance between the Congress and AAP.
Fourth, in Delhi election manifesto, introduction of mohalla committees to devolve powers to the grassroots level was a welcome feature. Huge urban bodies like the municipal corporations need to move closer to the people by having ward-wise committees wherein prominent citizens can participate in local governance along with the elected representatives.
Fifth, AAP would, it appears continue to stress on free-or cheap water and power to the middle class. Fifty percent reduction in the cost of these items could figure in the national manifesto. The party believes that essential services like power or water cannot be measured as business activities. Though his efforts to waive off unpaid power-bills of 24,000 people, who participated, in the AAP-led agitation against inflated power bills, sounds like the 19th century American spoils system or resembles the practice of permitting only those who carried party card to ride in government buses during Malawi’s dictator, Dr. Hastings Banda’s time.
Sixth, AAP has been over-emphasising its apparent efforts to be really like common people or the aam aadmi of India. Refusing to ride in cars with red beacon light has been overdone though it was the Supreme Court (SC) which first laid down guidelines on its use. Kejriwal rides in Mumbai in public autorickshawalas and train. In reality, it is an old gimmick! The message was first enunciated by Pandit Nehru who had said that he be addressed as a servant of the people. Mahatma Gandhi earlier had insisted in travelling third class in trains, which the then governments found far more expensive than his travelling in a special saloon. Travel by public transport symbolically has been followed by Gulzarilal Nanda, Lal Bahadur Shastri, and in present times by Veerappa Moily, Rahul Gandhi and few others.
Public pronouncements:
Seeing through leaders’ utterances, certain policies are likely to find a place in the AAP manifesto. Thus, it is likely that prevention of illegal mining could figure in national/Goa manifesto. AAP supporters are already using it in Goa to attack the BJP government of Manohar Parikkar, though it played a major role under the SC guidance in taking action to prevent illegal mining. Second, it also appears that steps to prevent casino culture could also figure in the manifesto. There are strong indications that the AAP might emphasis preservation of environment and promotion of Information Technology. As much as it thinks that providing water or power is not a commercial proposition for the government, a similar approach might find a place towards health service and education.
Foreign policy
What are the main foreign policies the AAP is likely to stress on is very difficult to predict. However, it is likely to oppose Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in retail; but is open to examine FDI in other sectors on a case by case basis. During the formative years of the AAP as a party from the anti-corruption movement, an influential member of the AAP Prashant Bhushan had said that Kashmiris should be given the right to decide their future. Though now there is no reference, internationally to a plebiscite, he was toying with the idea of a referendum. He also advocated deployment of army in Kashmir also to be decided by consulting the people. Of course his views were contradicted by Kejriwal, but since then it is good for the health of AAP that they do not touch upon foreign policy in the present elections as they are unlikely to be called upon to handle nation’s external affairs.
Conclusions
The AAP is a political party which has yet to find its moorings. It does not seem to have nor trying to have a position in the ideological spectrum; is it a rightist party? When it supports Khap panchayat in Haryana or goes hunting against prostitution dens as a moral police in Delhi, it can be called as a rightist party. But when it speaks for poor or slum dwellers and autorickshawalas in Delhi it can be placed on the left. But its support to free enterprise or honesty in business, make it a right of the centre; when it speaks of agriculture, working class within a democratic system it is a left of the centre. But when it speaks of middle class with a typical middle class attitude of wishing to have easy political power but publicly showing it pays scant respect to it, it is a centrist party.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt once likened the manifesto to a railway platform; ‘we use it to get into the train to our destination and then of course forget the platform we used to get into the train!’ The AAP manifesto is likely to promise something for every segment of the Indian society. In the process, it is likely to manifest its destiny on 16 May 2014 — whether its manifesto will take it to its destination, and whether its leaders know it or leave it as a party into the dustbin of history in general elections of 2014, only time will tell.
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Dr. P. M. Kamath
The writer is former Professor of Politics, University of Mumbai and currently, Director, VPM’s Centre for International Studies (Regd.) and Adjunct Professor, Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University, Manipal.[/column]