On the opposition alliance, a desperate bid to counter the Modi juggernaut, Nandini Rao says there are inherent contradictions within it, as it has powerful regional parties that are direct rivals of each other in some states, not to speak of the ideological differences and personality clashes that beset them. Unable to connect the dots, the collapse of I.N.D.I.A and the disarray within its ranks have unwittingly played into the hands of the BJP, bolstering the latter’s electoral prospects.
In a bid to counter the dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Indian politics, an alliance of opposition parties known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) came into existence in July 2023. It was an alliance of 26 political parties led by the Indian National Congress (INC) with the primary goal of defeating the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the upcoming 2024 general elections.
The alliance, a revamped version of the UPA led by the Congress, was an outcome of a two-day brainstorming session that was held in Bengaluru to discuss the 2024 election strategy particularly to unite the disparate opposition factions under a common platform to challenge the BJP’s ‘hegemony.’ The formation of I.N.D.I.A marked a significant development in Indian politics, as opposition parties sought to forge a united front against the BJP’s formidable electoral machinery.
The alliance comprises the following parties: Indian National Congress, Trinamool Congress, DMK, Aam Aadmi Party, JD(U), RJD, JMM, Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), Shiv Sena (UBT), Samajwadi Party, NC, PDP, CPM, CPI, RLD, MDMK, Kongunadu Makkal Desia Katchi (KMDK), VCK, RSP, CPI-ML (Liberation), Forward Bloc, IUML, Kerala Congress (Joseph), Kerala Congress (Mani), Apna Dal (Kamerawadi), and the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK).
Political evolution
The alliance initially managed to bring together India’s previously fractured opposition parties that are aiming to keep the Modi government from coming to power again. The alliance includes powerful regional parties that are direct rivals to each other in some states, and the parties are also beset with ideological differences and personality clashes.
The BJP’s emergence as a dominant political force in India has been a defining feature of Indian politics in recent years. The party’s electoral success has been attributed to its positive development agenda, emphasis on national security, and its ability to tap into the aspirations of the masses. The formation of the I.N.D.I.A alliance has posed a challenge to the BJP’s dominance in key electoral battlegrounds.
The BJP’s electoral success has also been attributed to its ability to forge strategic alliances with regional parties in key regions. The party’s determined stance on national security and its commitment to restoring peace in Kashmir have resonated well with the voters. Also, the tangible progress in de-escalating violence and containing cross-border terror has strengthened the party’s credibility as a responsible guardian of national security and national interests.
The I.N.D.I.A alliance, at the time of formation, was set to have an eleven-member coordination committee to decide on important issues that directly or indirectly affect the elections and the alliance including important decisions like seat sharing among the alliance partners and PM candidate for the elections. Apart from defeating the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, other objectives of the alliance include uphold India’s secular values, protect the Constitution of India and to promote inclusive development.
The challenges
The I.N.D.I.A alliance faces several challenges in going ahead to weaken the BJP’s dominance in key electoral battlegrounds. To begin with is the reality of fragmented opposition. The alliance comprises a diverse set of opposition parties with varying ideologies and regional interests. Maintaining unity and strategic coordination among these parties is a significant challenge, especially in a “winner takes all” electoral system where a fragmented opposition can benefit the ruling party.
The BJP has a disciplined and a strong organisational base, which has been a key factor in its electoral success. Challenging the BJP’s ground-level mobilisation and campaign infrastructure poses a significant challenge for the I.N.D.I.A alliance. Additionally, the alliance’s ability to forge working partnerships and coordinate strategies in key states, each with its unique set of variables, will be crucial.
The BJP has made inroads in several states and has formed alliances with regional parties, making it essential for the I.N.D.I.A alliance to navigate complex regional dynamics and form effective alliances. The BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has garnered a strong national appeal and has been successful in projecting a pan-India narrative. Challenging the BJP’s national appeal and countering its overarching narrative, particularly on issues such as national security and development, is a significant challenge for I.N.D.I.A.
In India’s ‘first past the post’ electoral system, the alliance’s ability to strategically field candidates, manage seat-sharing arrangements, and consolidate the opposition vote is crucial. Fragmentation of the opposition vote can benefit the BJP, making it essential for I.N.D.I.A to manage electoral arithmetic effectively. The ‘First Past the Post’ System, aka simple majority system, is a voting system where the candidate who has won the most votes in a constituency is declared ‘elected’. In India, the Lok Sabha and the State Legislative Assembly elections are based on the FPTP system.
Key players
Bihar Chief Minister and leader of Janta Dal United JD(U) Nitish Kumar’s leadership was pivotal in galvanising support for I.N.D.I.A and rallying opposition parties behind a common agenda. His stature as a senior statesman and his track record of governance in Bihar lent credibility to the alliance’s efforts. However, Nitish Kumar’s sudden withdrawal from the alliance dealt a severe blow to I.N.D.I.A’s prospects of what it set out to do.
Nitish Kumar’s absence triggered a chain reaction within the alliance, a leadership vacuum, leading to a destabilisation of the bloc’s unity and cohesion. With key opposition parties re-evaluating their strategies and priorities in the absence of a unifying figure, I.N.D.I.A bloc is struggling with internal discord and conflicting agendas. The fragmentation of the alliance and the subsequent loss of momentum has dealt a significant blow to the opposition’s electoral prospects and its ability to pose a credible challenge to the BJP’s dominance.
In early January 2024, I.N.D.I.A alliance was considering appointing Nitish Kumar as the convenor of the bloc. However, within a few days, and in an unexpected turn of events, Nitish Kumar resigned as the Chief Minister of Bihar, broke ties with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and formed the government again in partnership with the BJP.
At that time, JD(U) spokesperson K C Tyagi was outspoken in blaming the Congress for the turn of events and the fall of the much-talked-about opposition bloc in Bihar. He remarked that members of the Congress leadership were more interested in consolidating the part position rather than the opposition grouping. He also said that the Congress kept on delaying talks on seat sharing which was crucial in strategising for the upcoming elections.
The collapse of I.N.D.I.A and the ensuing disarray within the opposition ranks have inadvertently played into the hands of the BJP, bolstering its electoral prospects for the 2024 elections. With the opposition fragmented and lacking a cohesive strategy to counter the BJP’s electoral juggernaut, the ruling party stands poised to secure a stronger mandate in the upcoming polls. The absence of a united opposition front has provided the BJP with a strategic advantage, enabling it to consolidate its support base and appeal to undecided voters disillusioned by the opposition’s internal squabbles. The rise and fall of I.N.D.I.A as an alliance of opposition parties underscore the complexities of coalition politics in India’s politics.