Harshita Singh takes a comprehensive look at the factors that drive India’s electoral fortunes. She concludes that India’s vast and diverse population is not only a defining characteristic of the country but also a significant determinant in its electoral dynamics. The sheer size of the electorate poses logistical challenges in conducting elections, requiring extensive planning and resources to ensure a smooth and inclusive process.
India is preparing for its next general elections in 2024, which are expected to be influenced by various factors such as population dynamics, regional disparities, and socio-economic realities. The tenure of the 17th Lok Sabha, for which the general elections were held in April-May 2019, is scheduled to end on 16 June 2024. And, the next General elections are expected to be held between April and May 2024 to elect 543 members of the 18th Lok Sabha.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is gearing up for the election, with the party’s recent victories in state elections boosting its confidence. The upcoming election is significant not only for India but also on a global scale, as more than 70 countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, will hold nationwide elections in 2024.
Voter equality
As India’s 2024 General Election approaches, it is expected to be a contest of competitive welfarism, with issues such as the challenge of opposition coordination, the battle for backward groups, and the emergence of foreign policy as a mass issue shaping the political discourse. It is important for voters to be aware of their rights, including those of differently-abled and the illiterate voters.
The Electoral Laws in India guarantee equality to Persons with Disabilities (PwDs) and make provisions for facilitating their access and participation in the electoral process. The Election Commission of India has drafted a framework to strengthen the voter base of PwDs, including identification of PwDs, facilitation in filling up voter registration forms, and assured minimum facilities at polling stations. Voters with disabilities or literacy challenges can seek assistance from an electoral officer who will record their voting choices using their preferred method.
The officer of elections shall keep a record including the name of the voter and of the person marking the ballot, and the record shall be certified and kept with the poll books. Every voter is entitled to be informed about the candidates vying for the election, including their financial electoral platforms and any criminal records they may have.
Factors and patterns
India’s vast and diverse population is not only a defining characteristic of the country but also a significant determinant in its electoral dynamics. The sheer size of the electorate poses logistical challenges in conducting elections, requiring extensive planning and resources to ensure a smooth and inclusive process.
Population distribution across India’s diverse states and regions plays a crucial role in electoral politics. Political parties often focus their campaign efforts and resources on states with larger populations, such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Bihar, to maximise their electoral gains.
These populous states wield greater electoral significance due to the higher number of parliamentary seats they contribute. For instance, the BJP’s recent wins in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan have widened its footprint in the country, accounting for almost half of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.
However, there are substantial variations in voting patterns between urban and rural areas, with urban residents having a greater tendency to vote in state assembly elections than rural dwellers. The magnitude of the task of conducting general elections in India is staggering, with about 9,00,000 polling booths and five million election personnel mobilised.
Moreover, India’s demographic composition, including factors such as age, gender, caste, religion, and socio-economic status, often shapes voter behaviour and electoral outcomes. Political parties tailor their messaging and campaign strategies to appeal to specific demographic groups, leveraging issues relevant to their concerns and aspirations.
Campaign strategies and mobilisation
In the run-up to the 2024 elections, political parties are expected to deploy sophisticated campaign strategies aimed at mobilising voters across diverse demographic groups and geographical regions. Traditional campaign methods, such as rallies, roadshows, and door-to-door canvassing, will be supplemented by digital outreach and social media engagement to reach a wider audience, especially among the younger demographic.
This shift towards digital engagement is crucial, given the significant impact of India’s urban population on electoral outcomes and on the deep digital penetration in rural India. Urban residents have a greater tendency to vote in state assembly elections, highlighting the importance of targeting this demographic section through online platforms.
Additionally, the ruling party’s recent wins in the heartland have given it a significant boost, emphasising the need for comprehensive campaign strategies that resonate across different states and regions. As India’s population distribution and demographic dynamics continue to evolve, political parties must adapt their campaign approaches to effectively engage with voters across the diverse landscape of the country.
Political parties will also focus on targeting key demographic segments, including women, youth, rural voters, and marginalised communities, through targeted messaging and outreach programmes. Issues such as employment generation, healthcare, education, infrastructure development, and social welfare are likely to feature prominently in campaign agendas, reflecting the diverse concerns of the electorate.
Regional dynamics and local issues will also influence campaign strategies, with parties designing their outreach programmes and promises to resonate with specific regional aspirations and priorities. Regional parties, particularly in states with significant linguistic and cultural diversity, will play a crucial role in shaping electoral outcomes and coalition dynamics at the national level.
Socio-economic realities
India’s socio-economic realities such as development disparity will continue to influence voter perceptions and electoral outcomes in 2024. Issues such as agrarian distress, unemployment, access to basic services, and social justice are likely to resonate with voters, especially in rural areas and among marginalised communities.
Political parties are under pressure to tackle socio-economic challenges in their campaign agenda, offering policy solutions and welfare schemes to help the disadvantaged. The success of these promises in addressing the electorate’s aspirations and grievances will determine the electoral fortunes of political parties and candidates. The relationship between socio-economic issues and political activities is well-documented. Socio-economic factors, such as income, education, and trust in government, influence political participation and knowledge.
Additionally, the political economy, which examines how political forces affect the economy and vice versa, plays a crucial role in shaping economic policies and, by extension, the electorate. Therefore, the interplay between socio-economic challenges and political dynamics is a key determinant of electoral outcomes and the overall functioning of democracies.
India’s upcoming general elections in 2024 will be influenced by a variety of factors, including population dynamics, regional disparities, socio-economic realities, and demographic compositions. These elements intersect to shape the electoral process and outcomes. Political parties are expected to pool in all resources to create and run a targeted campaign strategy with specific outreach programmes to mobilise the diverse electorate across different demographic groups and geographical regions of India.
The elections in the world’s largest democracy will unfold against the backdrop of its rich and complex landscape, reflecting the aspirations, concerns, and hopes of its diverse populace. The democratic makeup of India is intricately woven with the country’s vastness and unparalleled diversity which play a significant role in shaping the electoral process and the verdict. Political parties will need to navigate these in the upcoming elections that will showcase the dynamic interplay between the diversity and vibrant democracy of India.