Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the kind of leader who does not allow grass to grow under his feet. He is a man on the move at home and abroad. He is clear headed, pragmatic, and has the courage to say and do what needs to be said and done. His self-confidence to lead the nation obviously is based on the massive popular mandate he won in the 2014 elections. But, the contrast from the last three years of the Manmohan Singh Government cannot be explained away on this score alone. Modi is determined to achieve his twin objectives of putting the country back on the track of rapid and sustained growth and enhance the country’s security. His foreign policy initiatives are designed to subserve the overarching goals.
Last four months saw enormous activity on the foreign relations front. An endless stream of foreign leaders from across the world came to renew and strengthen their bilateral relations with India. A Chinese envoy, a Minister from Singapore, US Under Secretary of State, Congressman John McCain (the Republican Party’s Presidential candidate against Obama in the 2008 elections), a high-level delegation from UK led by the Foreign Secretary William Hague and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, and the Australian Prime Minister were among them.
A great start
On his part, the new Prime Minister started his innings on the foreign relations front with a bang. In an unprecedented and imaginative move, he invited all the SAARC leaders to his swearing-in ceremony. Understandably, the Ministry of External Affairs was not in the loop on this bold initiative. Equally unprecedented was the response. All of them, including Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif graced the occasion, which is an acknowledgement of India’s importance, and their desire to touch base with the new leader in command in the country.
Modi used the occasion to hold one-to-one meetings with all of them. While no serious negotiations could be held, the novel initiative conveyed the message that the Modi Government accorded highest priority to the country’s relations with its immediate neighbours in South Asia. Modi chose Bhutan for his first official foreign trip to avoid any wrong signals on this score. Next he went to Nepal. By agreeing to review the old and controversial Treaty of 1950, he cleared the way for restoring good relations with Nepal.
This was followed by the new Prime Minister’s very successful diplomatic foray at the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit in Brazil during 15-16 July, 2014. The most important outcome of the meeting was the decision to set up a New Development Bank as long-term alternative to the World Bank and IMF. In a shrewd tactical move, Modi proposed the principle of equality of all members in the operation of the Bank. Modi also won the consent of all members to have India nominate the first President of the Bank for the initial five years.
Modi held one-to-one meetings with all the leaders on the sidelines of the Summit. Most important and seemingly fruitful of them was his interaction with the Chinese President Xi Jinping. He invited India to be an active member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a significant departure from the earlier policy of having India as only an Observer to the deliberations. Xi also invited India to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) to be held in China in November 2014. This could be seen as China’s acceptance of India as a legitimate player in Asia-Pacific. China invited India earlier to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as a founder member.
At Modi’s request, Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff, the host of the BRICS Summit, invited the leaders of as many as eleven South American countries to meet and interact with the visiting Indian Prime Minister. Modi used the occasion to press for expanded bilateral and multilateral relations between India and those countries.
India-Japan: Strategic security gets prominence
Modi’s highly successful visit to Japan and the much acclaimed one-to-one meeting with Shinzo Abe, the equally popular Prime Minister of Japan, followed soon afterwards. Modi wanted to meet Abe before the Chinese President’s scheduled visit. New proximity between India and Japan is rightly seen as the best way to leverage India-China bilateral equation. Japan was more than willing to play ball. Japan pledged to invest 2.1 lakh crores of rupees ($35.5 billion) in India in five years. Five agreements, including one in defence sector, were signed in Tokyo. As anticipated, the civilian nuclear deal did not come through. The most important take away from Modi’s trip to Japan was in the area of strategic security. The two countries agreed to work with the US for a joint trilateral (US-Japan-India) arrangement to ensure safety and security of the high seas in the Indo-Pacific region. The two leaders went on to add that they would reach out to other concerned countries in the region. This is a noteworthy departure from the policy posture of the UPA Government, which did not want to join any anti- China coalition. Modi was less squeamish and clear headed on the need to contain what he described as the “forces of expansionism” in the region. But he was careful not to mention any country by name.
India-China: Taking the dragon by its tail
The three-day State Visit of the Chinese President Xi Jinping to India began on 17 September, 2014. As usual there was a lot of build up and media hype over the visit in India. Unlike in the past, Xi’s visit to India was publicised widely in China. Official spokespersons of the country declared that the “historic” visit would usher in “another era” in Sino-Indian relations and would be embedded with strong “strategic resonance.” There was much talk of Xi “matching, if not surpassing” the massive Japanese investment announced from Tokyo. The Indian side was equally euphoric about the outcomes from the visit.
However, the reality turned out to be far more modest than the pre-visit expectations. China pledged to invest $20 billion in India in the next five years, mainly in industrial infrastructure and development projects. The number of industrial parks proposed was reduced to two (from four). A five-year plan was mooted to reduce the huge and growing adverse trade balance ($40 billion). The pre-visit hype about a China-Russia-India security linkage to counter America’s global hegemony did not surface during the visit; nor was there any mention of the earlier stated possibility of including India in the recently signed mega ($400 billion) energy deal with Moscow.
On the contrary, China indulged in its usual double game of playing hot and cold at the same time, which back fired this time around. Even as the offers of huge investments and a new era of economic cooperation were on the anvil, Chinese soldiers intruded across the LOAC in Chumar sector in Ladakh and set up camps. The Indian side responded by confronting the Chinese with a matching military buildup. Modi told the Chinese President, while the official level negotiations were in progress, that unless peace and tranquillity are assured on the border no progress would be possible in the bilateral relations between our two countries. Such open declaration right in the middle of the delegation level negotiations had not happened before. Prime Minister Modi was clear and categorical on this score and deserves high praise for taking the dragon by its tail. Xi responded by saying that he would look into the matter. But, the confrontation continued till five days after President Xi went back home.
In between, Modi handled Pakistan firmly and extracted due restraint. His Government told the Pakistani High Commissioner in India not to meet the Kashmiri separatist leaders prior to the Foreign Secretaries meeting to be held in Islamabad shortly. The High Commissioner went ahead and met the Hurriyat leaders as was the usual practice. India responded by cancelling the scheduled bilateral meeting. Later, Pakistan agreed that it was not necessary to meet the separatist leaders in advance of bilateral talks in the future.
India-US: Modi makes a pitch for ‘Make in India’
Modi’s five-day trip to the US was a virtual whirlwind. It was packed with interactions with selected bigwigs in business and industry, and a series of mass meetings attended by an enthusiastic audience. At the very outset it should be highlighted that prior to his trip, Modi wisely and correctly observed that India-US relations do not mean relations between Delhi and Washington. Government to Government relations (important as they are) constitute only one element in the vast canvas of people to people relations between the two countries.
The new Prime Minister sees himself as a business diplomat. Prior to his departure to the US, he launched his major campaign called “Make in India”, with much fanfare. He made sure that corporate India was enthusiastically on his side before wooing Big Business in America. Towards this end he combined style, symbolism, and substance into a masterly PR campaign. Before going on to Washington, Modi made it a point to meet a select group of CEOs of major corporations and followed it up with one to one meetings with a few of them. Modi seemed to have persuaded them to take a fresh look at India as a good investment destination. A number of actions of immense symbolism followed soon after. He visited “ground zero” – the site of 9/11 terrorist attack in New York City, with the Mayor in tow! He met the Clinton couple and a number of prominent Indian-American leaders. His address at the Global Citizens Festival in the Central Park made him a “Rock Star” style world leader. His emotion filled address at the Madison Square Garden was certainly the high water mark of his trip to the US. More than 18,000 ticket holding crowd inside and a lot of others who could not get in, heard him with rapt attention. The speech was broadcast live on a huge screen at Times Square, and over 50 locations across the vast country.
He addressed the United Nations General Assembly like a world leader. He said that India looks at the world as one family (vasudhaiva kutumbakam), has a tradition of living in tune with nature, and yoga is the ancient civilisation’s gift to the world. He thought it was fruitless to bring bilateral issues like Kashmir to the UN and told Pakistan that the two countries should instead take care of the flood victims all over the state. He also stated that 20th century institutions like the UN would become irrelevant if they do not reform, to reflect the realities of the 21st century.
While in Washington DC, Modi made it a point to pay his respects to Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King, and Mahatma Gandhi. The symbolism of these visits assumed extra significance because Obama changed his plans and accompanied Modi to the Martin Luther King Memorial.
Another symbolic feature of Modi’s trip to the US was that he continued with his usual nine-day Navaratri Festival fast of consuming only water, including at the White House dinner! The Modi-Obama one to one meeting was certainly the highlight of the foreign foray. Both leaders saw the other’s country as a natural partner and declared their intent to take the strategic partnership to the next level. India-US relations are already so extensive and intensive that one could only expect steady and incremental enhancement in the bilateral equation. To expect breakthroughs each time the two leaders meet is unrealistic. A quantum jump in the nature of the relationship would be possible only if and when the two nations share a common world view, which is not on the cards. Irrespective of parties in power in India, we cannot and will not endorse the American penchant for unilateral military intervention around the world.
There are bound to be a number of issues on which the two countries do not see eye to eye. Nuclear Liability Law, Intellectual Property Rights, and trade development versus food security are hard nuts to crack. The only wise course is to manage the differences.
India condemns America’s double standards on international terrorism emanating from Pakistan, and does not appreciate the American plea of helplessness in the face of Pakistan’s perfidy. One of the perennial problems of relations between the two democracies is, “consensus at the conceptual level and contention at the concrete level.”
After these months of foreign forays and activism of Modi, the verdict now lies in the future. There is a lot of promise. In the final analysis, it is performance that matters.
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B. Ramesh Babu
The writer is Adjunct Professor, School of Public Policy, ICFAI University, Hyderabad. Formerly, he was the Sir Pherozeshah Mehta Professor of Civics & Politics at Mumbai University.[/column]