With emphasis on China, and as recently as Canada and Maldives as templates, Ruchi Verma outlines how India’s deft diplomatic manoeuvres have been bringing it on global centre-stage and asserts it has substantial ramifications for domestic policies. The reference to border dispute with China, Canada’s posturing on Sikh separatism and strategically located Maldives’ criticism of PM Modi explains the algorithm.
India has been actively redefining its foreign relations strategy, particularly in its engagements with China, Canada and the Maldives. These diplomatic manoeuvres are not only crucial for shaping India’s position on the global stage but also carry significant implications for its domestic politics, especially as the country gears up for the 2024 general elections.
The relationship between India and China has been characterised by a mix of cooperation and competition, underscored by historical grievances and contemporary geopolitical ambitions. In recent years, tensions have flared over border disputes, economic competition, and strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The China conundrum
India’s approach to its relations with China under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been marked by a combination of pragmatism and assertiveness. The Modi government has sought to engage with China on issues of mutual interest, such as trade and investment, while also standing firm on matters of national security and territorial integrity.
However, the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which resulted in casualties on both sides, served as a stark reminder of the underlying tensions between the two Asian giants. In response, India has taken steps to bolster its military capabilities along the disputed border and strengthen strategic partnerships with like-minded countries in the region, including the United States and Japan.
The evolving dynamics of India-China relations are closely watched by domestic audiences, particularly against the backdrop of heightened nationalist sentiments and concerns about Chinese assertiveness. The outcome of India’s foreign policy towards China is likely to resonate with voters, who are increasingly attuned to issues of national security and sovereignty.
Trade and immigration
Canada and India share a multifaceted relationship spanning trade, investment, education, and immigration. Historically, ties between the two countries have been characterised by a significant Indian diaspora in Canada and growing economic cooperation. In recent years, bilateral relations between India and Canada have faced challenges, particularly due to Canada’s perceived support for Sikh separatist movements and concerns over trade barriers faced by Indian exporters.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government’s position on issues such as the farmers’ protests in India and human rights concerns has further complicated the relationship. The postponement of a trade mission to India and the contentious meeting between the two countries’ leaders reflect the strained nature of their current relations.
Despite these challenges, India and Canada have longstanding bilateral ties built upon shared traditions of democracy, pluralism, and strong interpersonal connections. The two countries have also been working to enhance cooperation in various areas, including trade, investment, and counter-terrorism. While frictions exist, both countries continue to engage in efforts to improve their ties and address the issues that have strained their relationship.
Striking a balance
Under the Modi government, India has taken a more assertive approach in its dealings with Canada, seeking to address trade imbalances and push back against perceived interference in its internal affairs. The Indian government’s decision to suspend certain agricultural imports from Canada in retaliation for Ottawa’s criticism of the farmers’ protests underscores the shifting dynamics in bilateral relations.
The two nations were negotiating a FTA (Free Trade Agreement) which India paused when it realised that Ottawa was harbouring subversive elements in the country who were involved in anti-India activities. The deal, in its first phase, was covering goods, services, rules of origin, technical barriers to trade, and dispute settlement by this year; followed by the India-Canada CEPA to cover other bilateral issues of strategic importance.
The evolving trajectory of India-Canada relations is likely to factor into the electoral calculus, particularly in those constituencies with significant Indian diaspora populations. Issues related to trade, immigration, and national sovereignty are likely to resonate with voters, shaping their perception of the government’s foreign policy stance.
Navigating the Indian Ocean
The Maldives, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, holds significant importance for India’s maritime security and regional influence. Historically, ties between India and the Maldives have been characterised by close cultural and economic linkages, although the relationship has experienced ups and downs due to political instability and external influences.
India, in the recent years, has sought to deepen its engagement with the Maldives, particularly in the areas of infrastructure development, maritime security, and counterterrorism cooperation. Prime Minister Modi’s government has prioritised enhancing bilateral ties with the Maldives, viewing the island nation as a key partner in its “Neighbourhood First” policy.
The signing of agreements for infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Male Connectivity Project – with an Indian grant of USD 100 million and a Line of Credit of USD 400 million, and the strengthening of defence and security cooperation underscore India’s commitment to bolstering its relationship with the Maldives. These developments are closely watched by domestic audiences, who perceive India’s engagement with its neighbours as critical for safeguarding its strategic interests and countering external influence in the region.
The relations between the two nations hit a low recently following the newly-elected Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s criticism of PM Modi and pledge to remove Indian military troops from the country, and Maldives’ minister’s derogatory remarks on PM Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep.
During a discussion at the second meeting of the India-Maldives High Level Core Group, the MEA announced that the two nations have agreed to a set of ‘mutually workable solutions’ to allow ‘the continued operation of Indian aviation platforms that provide humanitarian and medvac services to the people of Maldives.’ The MEA spokesperson confirmed that India’s military personnel in the Maldives are set to be replaced by technical personnel.
Domestic discourse
India’s evolving foreign relations policy vis-a-vis China, Canada, and the Maldives is likely to shape the discourse in the lead-up to the 2024 elections. Key themes such as national security, economic diplomacy, and sovereignty are expected to feature prominently in political debates and electoral campaigns.
The government’s handling of issues related to China, including border security and economic competition, will be closely scrutinised by voters, particularly in constituencies bordering China and those with significant defence and security concerns.
The outcome of India’s engagements with Canada, especially on trade and immigration, will resonate with the Indian diaspora and business communities, influencing their electoral preferences.
Similarly, India’s strategic partnerships in the Indian Ocean region, particularly with the Maldives, are likely to be viewed through the lens of regional stability and maritime security. The government’s efforts to strengthen ties with neighbouring countries and counter external influence will be a focal point in political narratives, shaping voter perceptions of India’s foreign policy priorities.
The preparations
India, under the Modi government, has been actively strengthening its strategic partnerships in the Indian Ocean region to enhance regional stability and maritime security. The country is building its naval assets and maritime surveillance capabilities to counter the growing threat of China in the Indian Ocean Region.
The government’s strategic engagement in the Indian Ocean, particularly with countries like the Maldives and France, reflects its commitment to ensuring a secure and stable maritime environment in the region.
These partnerships are crucial for India’s role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean and are aligned with its Indo-Pacific strategy. The evolving dynamics in the Indian Ocean region are integral to India’s foreign policy and its pursuit of strategic interests, including trade and security considerations. This carries significant implications for the domestic political discourse, particularly as the country prepares for the 2024 elections.