Afghanistan is today at a crossroads, creating uncertainties as to the course it will take after the Americans withdraw the USled International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). President Hamid Karzai was unwilling to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) to enable them to place a limited number of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan after the December 2014 withdrawal. Karzai, because of his anti-American stance, had stated that the new government that was elected in June 2014 would decide on the bilateral agreement. Americans were frustrated with President Karzai and were speaking of ‘Withdrawal with Zero Option’.
After the June elections, an opportunity for smooth transfer of power was frustrated by the squabbling between the two equally competent candidates – Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, both eager to succeed to the Presidency. However, on 11 September, they agreed to power sharing under an American and UN team mediated agreement, a first ever democratic transition of power in Afghanistan. The agreement on power sharing provided for Ashraf Ghani becoming the President and sharing powers with Abdullah Abdullah as the Chief Executive Officer – a sort of Prime Minister (PM). The new government was inaugurated after the President was sworn in on 29 September.
Is India a reluctant partner?
What has been the Indian role so far? Afghanistan had common border with India during the British rule and was a friendly neighbour. Even after the creation of Pakistan, friendly relations between the two continued. But Pakistan’s relations with the two have always been turbulent with mutual mistrust. Though the Afghans were unhappy with India for not speaking out firmly against Soviet military intervention in their country in December 1979, relations have improved since the American military intervention in Afghanistan in October 2001 to overturn the then anti-people Taliban government. Since then, the democratically elected first Afghan President, India-educated Karzai, has always come to India as a friend and eager to improve relations. Despite that, many have described India as a reluctant partner of Afghanistan. What explains India’s reluctance? It has two and a half reasons. First, historically world’s major powers in the past like the British Empire, and the Soviet Union have failed to control or subdue Afghanistan. India does not wish to get involved militarily in Afghanistan. That policy is reinforced by Indian Peace Keeping Force’s (IPKF) failure in Sri Lanka in the 1980s to subdue the LTTE.
Second, Pakistan is highly suspicious of Indian intentions whenever she gets involved in Afghanistan, even in the area of economic reconstruction. Pakistan since inception, has acquired tremendous capacity to disturb India in every possible way – from pumping counterfeit currency, to sending terrorists, and waging war openly or by stealth. Any presence of India in Afghanistan is considered as aimed against Pakistan. This is borne out by the fact of Pakistan’s India-specific terrorist instrument, the Lashkar-e-Toiba’s (LeT) attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul twice, in 2008 and 2009, killing 75.
Thus, India is highly concerned with the sensitivities of Pakistan. Hence, while willing to participate in economic development, aid in the growth of democracy and emergence of Afghanistan as a modern educated and secular nation, India is very cautious about getting involved militarily in Afghanistan.
The last, half reason is the US. It has been pursuing ‘zigging now and zagging later policy’ on Indian participation in Afghanistan; that in turn, was determined by the intensity with which Pakistan was able to pressurise the US for Indian exclusion, or the US ability to withstand Pakistan’s pressure or blackmailing. American policy makers thus confuse Indian policymakers by their lack of clarity of intention and policies!
Economic, infrastructure and educational development
Yet, since the American direct military intervention in Afghanistan in 2001, India has been active in the development of infrastructure, economy, education, culture and democratisation of politics in Afghanistan. India, by making a commitment of an aid of $2 billion, has emerged as the fifth largest bilateral donor for development activities, of which over $1 billion has already been spent. These activities include Delaram-Zarang highway connecting Afghanistan’s main highway, the ring road, to the Iranian border. Eventually, this will enable Afghanistan to trade directly with India bypassing Pakistan, as India is also helping Iran in the development of Iranian Chabahar port.
India has undertaken to build a Parliament building in Kabul, electricity generation and distribution to Kabul and some more cities. Indian capacity building programmes provide hundreds of scholarships to Afghan students, and civil servants. India is also providing food aid, medical aid, etc.
Security preparedness
India is the first country to have signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Afghanistan. We may not be militarily involved, yet, India is involved in training of Afghan Police, Army and administrative personnel. President Karzai had during his visits to New Delhi requested former Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh to increase Indian military involvement with a wish-list for enhanced military cooperation. President Karzai had requested for light artillery guns, helicopters and heavy vehicles. A military training academy with Indian instructors was also sought by him.
Post-December 2014 scenario
I had organised an international seminar on Afghanistan in Mumbai in July 2014. During the seminar quite a few scholars were of the opinion that Taliban is already very active in the Afghan countryside and once the US withdraws, it might capture power in Kabul. However, this possibility is ruled out by a section of scholars who argue that Taliban does not enjoy airpower, without which it is difficult for them to capture power. Another section pointed out that the Afghan situation now is totally different in comparison to the situation soon after Soviet withdrawal in 1985.
Afghan scholars are confident that during the 14 years of democracy in Afghanistan, Afghans have come to develop a vested interest in retaining freedoms they are enjoying under the new regime. The people will fight to see that democracy continues to flourish in Afghanistan. But India has also been reluctant to invest more in economic development because of the uncertain political and security scenario in Afghanistan until 11 September 2014. Since then, things have moved in the right direction.
The new President has already signed a BSA with the US and the NATO on 30 September, making it possible for them to keep about 12,000 troops in Afghanistan after the US troops withdrawal at the end of December 2014. Explaining the rationale for his acceptance of the security pact, President Ghani said: “This agreement will pave the way for peace; it will not be an obstacle to peace.” The security pact will help to train, equip and advise Afghan troops. Counter terrorism is an important area of training.
Agenda for Modi government
Hamid Karzai had, like the other heads of state from the SAARC countries, attended Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in Delhi. He had one-to-one talks with Modi, wherein the two discussed, enhanced cooperation between two countries after the December 2014 US and NATO troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. Hence, here are some policy suggestions. Afghan students who study in Indian Universities have nothing but praise for the programme. India should at least double the scholarships it offers now. India should also expand its training programme for Afghan diplomatic, security, police, military and administration personnel in Indian institutions, academies and universities. Indian personnel visiting Afghan universities and training academies is also a welcome option. There are twenty million youth below 25. India could provide vocational training to the youth so that they can get be gainfully employed. This may prevent them from joining in anti-state activities. India should also contribute towards the proposed Afghan decision to rebuild the Bamiyan Buddha with UNESCO funding. This Afghan decision is highly laudable. It could strengthen Afghanistan’s secular credentials.
Today foreign aid constitutes a major part of Afghanistan’s $20 billion GDP. Now Afghan leaders need to develop its economy and gradually reduce their over-dependence on foreign aid. India should take up the long delayed pipeline to ship gas from Turkmenistan to India, which could earn Afghanistan $400 million annually. India’s increased involvement in mining of minerals like gold, silver, aluminum is also desirable. India should also explore possibilities to set up joint food-processing projects in Afghanistan to process a wide range of fruits for export.
In the national security area, India already has a programme for enabling Afghanistan to purchase Russian military hardware. India should also agree to restore capacity of existing arms manufacturing units in Afghanistan. India could also consider supplying helicopters and fighter planes. The policy should be willingness to supply all that is feasible and desirable with the exception of sending Indian armed forces to fight their wars.
India has already warned the US that it should not abruptly withdraw from Afghanistan leaving its democracy to terrorists. Modi and Obama in their recent meeting in Washington have agreed to coordinate their Afghan policies.
Security pacts signed on 30 September will enable foreign assistance in billions to pour from the US and the European Union. India should explore ways and means to increase its cooperation with Afghanistan, jointly with the US, in certain mutually beneficial high-tech areas. For instance, air traffic control system to regulate air space over Afghanistan is currently looked after by the US-based company, IAP World- Wide Services. They are short of trained air-controllers. While helping to train Afghans for air-traffic controlling jobs, India could also provide Indian air traffic control staff.
India is the second largest contributor to the UN Democratic Fund that separately contributes funds to Afghanistan to develop as a democracy. The US, Europe, Japan, South Korea and India jointly want to see Afghanistan develop as a democratic nation within the comity of nations.
International support to build a democratic Afghanistan becomes vital for peace and security not only for India, but to democracies all over the world in the background of the growing power of the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS). Pakistan is certainly going to grab the opportunity of inviting and using ISIS to harm India and Afghanistan.